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Multivariate Analyses to Assess Treatment Effectiveness in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer
Urjeet Patel, MD;
Edward Spitznagel, PhD;
Jay Piccirillo, MD
Arch Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2002;128:497-503.
Objective To assess relative benefit of combined radiotherapy and surgery over
single-modality treatment for advanced-stage squamous cell carcinoma of the
aerodigestive tract by means of several multivariable analyses to control
for patient variables.
Design Medical chart review.
Setting University medical center.
Patients and Methods The study included 532 patients receiving initial therapy between January
1, 1980, and December 31, 1989. Three multivariate techniques (multiple logistic
regression, propensity score stratification, and conjunctive consolidation)
were used to compare outcomes for treatment groups.
Main Outcome Measure Five-year survival.
Results Survival for radiation, surgery, and combined treatment groups were
24%, 40%, and 46%, respectively. With the use of multiple logistic regression
to control patient variables, the radiation group had a significantly lower
survival than the combined therapy group (risk ratio, 2.24; 95% confidence
interval, 1.32-3.80), while there was no statistical difference for the surgery
group compared with the combined therapy group (risk ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence
interval, 0.78-2.03). When analyzed by propensity score, 5-year survival was
higher in each quintile for the combined therapy group than for the group
who received radiation alone (P = .002). There was
no significant difference in survival between the surgery and combined treatment
groups (P = .25). Conjunctive consolidation was used
to create a clinical staging system to compare outcomes across treatment groups.
In each clinical severity stage, radiation alone had a lower survival than
combined therapy (P = .001), while no statistical
difference was noted between surgery and combined therapy (P = .50).
Conclusions All 3 statistical techniques showed a significantly lower survival for
patients treated with radiation alone vs combined therapy. No significant
difference was noted between surgery and combined therapy. Propensity score
analysis and conjunctive consolidation are useful techniques to control prognostic
variables in cancer database studies and should be used in future outcome
studies that address more current treatment dilemmas in head and neck oncology.
From the Departments of Otolaryngology (Drs Patel and Piccirillo) and
Mathematics (Dr Spitznagel), Washington University, St Louis, Mo.
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